A Guide:
	An Outline of the Guide

Executive Summary
Life Cycle of Conflict
Acronyms
Bibliography

Costs and Causes of Conflict in the Greater Horn of Africa

A. Impacts on Countries in Conflict
B. Impacts Outside the Countries in Conflict
C. Causes of Conflict in the Greater Horn of Africa
>>>1. Systemic Causes of Conflict in the Greater Horn:  External Factors
>>>2. Systemic Causes of Conflict in the Greater Horn:  Internal Factors
>>>3. Proximate Causes of Conflict in the Greater Horn:  External Factors
>>>4. Proximate Causes of Conflict in the Greater Horn: Internal Factors

Post-Cold War Opportunity and Challenge

A. Today’s Parameters
B. Fundamental Principles in Preventing Conflict
C. Issues Addressed in this Guide
D. Who Should Read This Guide?
E. Using This Guide: A Road Map
F. Violent Conflict: A Price of Rapid Change?
>>>1. National Conflicts in the Post-Cold War Era
>>>2. Recent Responses to Conflict: From Crisis Intervention to Conflict Prevention
G.Adjusting Old Programs and Procedures for Post-Cold War National Conflicts
>>>1.Conflict Prevention Gaps in Established Programs
>>>2. Gaps in New Approaches
>>>3. The Challenge

Understanding Conflicts and Peace

A. Key Concepts in Conflict and Peace
B. Levels of Conflict and Peace
>>>1. What is Conflict?
>>>2. Violent Conflict
>>>3. The Continuum from Harmony to War
C. Determinants of Violent Conflict or Peace
>>>1. Systemic Causes: Structural Conditions
>>>2. Proximate Causes: Political and Institutional Factors
>>>3. Immediate Causes: Acts and Events
>>>4. External and Internal Factors
>>>5. Sample Causal Analysis
>>>6. "Ethnic" Conflict
D. Violent Conflicts: Emergence and Cessation
>>>1. Dynamics of Escalation
>>>2. Early Warning

A Toolbox to Respond to Conflicts and Build Peace

A. What Does It Take to Respond to Violent Conflicts?
B. The Continuum of Interventions
>>>1. Clarifying Terms
>>>2. The Continuum of Interventions According to the Phase of Conflict
C. Policy Tools for Conflict Prevention
>>>1. Policy Tools and Functional Areas
>>>2. Tools for Conflict Intervention According to Principal Sources of Conflict Addressed
D. Tool Profiles

A. Official Diplomacy:
Special Envoys
B. Non-Official Conflict Management:
Non-Official Facilitation
Peace Commissions
Indigenous Conflict Management
C. Military Measures:
Confidence and Security-Building Measures
Military Professionalization and Reform
Military Restructuring and Integration
Military Demobilization
Preventive Deployment
D. Economic and Social Measures:
Conditionality
Sanctions and Embargoes
Economic and Resource Cooperation
Humanitarian Assistance
Development Assistance
Power-Sharing Arrangements
National Conferences
Political Institution-Building
Electoral Assistance
Civic Society-Building
E. Political Development and Governance
Decentralization of Power
Judicial/Legal Reform
Police Reform
F. Communication and Education:
War Crimes Tribunals/Truth Commissions
Peace Media

Developing Effective Conflict Prevention Strategies

A. A Systematic Approach

1. Track national transitionsunderstanding of the sources and . Conflict prevention and mitigation are not generic. Moving a country towards durable peace begins with a clear nature of local conflicts.
2. Set goals. Policy-makers must choose strategic priorities and establish conflict prevention goals and objectives.
3. Assess national needs and tasks. Policy-makers must pinpoint the key policy sectors in which to concentrate and the tasks associated with achieving the specified goals.
4. Choose tools. Policy-makers must determine the mix of policy options each goal requires, assessing what indigenous and outside efforts are doing harm and can do good, and determining where new initiatives must fill gaps.
5. Identify implementing partners. Policy-makers must determine which internal and external partners might best implement policy interventions in light of each implementor’s strengths and weaknesses.
6. Time interventions. Policy options vary according to the stage of conflict; some must be carefully sequenced to achieve their intended effect.
7. Coordinate responses. Coordinating regional and international responses maximizes results while minimizing chances of intervenors worsening the conflict. Explicitly spelling out actors’ responsibilities and mandates in achieving goals can help maximize scarce resources.
8. Plan the exit strategy. Conflict prevention strategies must be planned over time and, for third parties, must define criteria for disengagement.

B. Institutionalizing a System for Conflict Prevention and Mitigation